Note :- A detail analysis has been done for this year budget based on it we have Identified two sector funds which has big potential to perform well in a short duration time of 3 Years. In the Year 2016 we had analyzed two sector funds where it made money double in just 3 years of time. Happy Investing.. !!
Good Morning - Indian Budget Day
12:50 pm :- Budget 2019 Income Tax Slab Rates Changes Expectations: Individuals with a gross income of Rs 6.5 lakh will have to pay no tax if they make an investment. FM also said standard deduction would be raised from Rs 40,000 to Rs 50,000.
12:30 Big Update - Individual taxpayers with annual income up to 5 lakh rupees to get full tax rebate
11:55 am :- The Government has set the target for Net Borrowing at INR 7.04 Lakh Cr.
11:44 am :- A pension scheme is being launched -'Pradhan Mantri Shram Yogi Bandhan', to provide assured pension of Rs 3000/ month, with contribution of Rs 100/month, for workers in unorganized sector after 60 yrs of age.
11:38 am :- FM : Instead of rescheduling of crop loans, the farmers severely affected by natural calamities will get 2% interest subvention and additional 3% interest subvention upon timely repayment.. #Budget@SouthEastern
11:30 am :- Under Pradhan Mantri Kisan Samman Nidhi, 6000 rupees per year for each farmer, in three installments, to be transferred directly to farmers' bank accounts, for farmers with less than 2 hectares land holding: FM
#SouthEastern was looking for ₹4k per crop/per year...
11:13 am :- A number of measures were brought in to ensure clean banking: FM
11:10 am :- The next-gen reforms in last five years have set the stage for decades of high growth: - Piyush Goyal
11:15 am :- हमने कमरतोड़ महंगाई की कमर ही तोड़ दी, हम दुनिया की छठी सबसे बड़ी अर्थव्यवस्था है - Piyush Goyal
10:55 am :- Cautious approach :- Foreign investors are raising questions on data revision. Shocked about statistical revisions in India.
10:03 :- The Big analysis where #SouthEastern focusing on are;
- Where does the money come from?
- How is the money spent?
10:01 am :- Its Profit booking time on all three budget picks, on an average 1 derivative lot trade, all the three stocks making big profit of Rs. 20,000+. (CMP, BhartiAirtel@319, HUL@1791 & ITC @281), Keep our M3 Charts indicators in place to book big profits throughout the day on our other recommendation's floating on #Privy Client Page. (detail in right side Tweeter link where Print screen updated #Live)
9:18 am We have given 3 Budget Special Intraday Stock Trades, Bharti Airtel@310.90, HUL@1773 & ITC @279.30.
INDIAN BUDGET 1st February 2018
The Year 2018-19 budget faced unique pressures and constraints. India has participated in the global equity market rally but not fully in the global growth momentum - the rating upgrade by Moody’s had put the credibility pressure on the stated fiscal consolidation path. Further, with the advent of GST, government may not be able to change vast majority of indirect taxes. And finally, oil at US$ 70 per barrel and rising bond yields have begun to induce macroeconomic pressures and constrain the fiscal space.
Amidst all the push and pulls, Fiscal slippage in 2017-18 was limited to 30bps and revised deficit estimate is pegged at 3.5% of GDP. The shortfall in indirect tax collection, profits transfer from RBI and telecom related receipts were only partly offset by higher direct taxes and disinvestment receipts. FY19 pencils the deficit at 3.3% of GDP. Overall fiscal arithmetic looks credible and has frayed away from any populist spending. The consolidation is achieved largely through expenditure restraint.
It’s amazing to see the tax-to-GDP is at the highest level while government expenditure to GDP is at a historic low. Total expenditure is budgeted to grow at just 9.1%. However, oil subsidy is unchanged for next year and could be at risk of slippage if crude oil stays high. While the capex spending share through budgetary resources is gradually declining, it is made good by increased capex through PSEs’ resources. A large part of the expenditure side (salaries, pensions, defense, interest payment) is sticky.
Uncertainty on GST (in the light of pending refunds and devolution to states), the assumed tax buoyancy on budgeted taxes appears realistic. Dividend from RBI and PSUs same as last year and telecom revenue at Rs. 487 billion – all appear to be credible. FY18 has seen the highest disinvestment proceeds in the history. Also, it is the first time in last 15 years that the disinvestment targets have been over-achieved. In FY19, the divestment proceeds have been pegged at Rs. 800 billion, which looks achievable. We hope to see beginning of strategic sales, as charted by NITI Aayog, materializing next year.
The budget continued its focus on rural economy and the farm sector- with measures focusing particularly on enhancing productivity. Government intends to ensure that the difference between MSP and market price is compensated to the farmers. The intent to liberalize the export of agriculture and commence an operation green (targeting higher production of key vegetables) bode well for the farm income. Phase III of the Pradhan Mantri Gram Sadak Yojna (PMGSY) will focus on improving the hinterland connectivity. The monetary allocation and targets for the rural housing schemes, though, stands broadly unchanged.
Another big moves in budget was the expansion of social security ambit. This is pertinent to realize our true demographic potential and achieve an inclusive growth. While the monetary outlay on the new grand health insurance scheme in this budget is low, it can be ramped up as the proper eco-system is put in place. MGNREGA, Financial Inclusion, Atal pension scheme, Ujjwala Yojna and now the health insurance – India is constructing a variable of Universal Basic Income for at least its bottom of the pyramid. That said, effective execution will be the key.
On corporate tax rates for small businesses were cut to 25%. Tax relief to senior citizens, salaried employees and small enterprises can likely help in increasing the disposable income. Support to MSME sector can have positive impact on job creation. US has embarked on a sharp tax rate reduction which may be followed by most other economies. India may eventually have to follow suit and lower tax rate for big corporates as well. The thought of having a unique ID for businesses (on the lines of Aadhar which is for individuals) can go a long way in improving the ‘ease of doing business’.
Now 10 year G-sec yield rose by 18 bps to 7.60%, suggesting the likely concern on MSP-hikes pushing inflation expectations higher and possible change in RBI’s stance. Rising global bond yields and crude oil prices are also weighing on the sentiments.
On Rural side the budget opens the door for large MSP revision, the eventual inflationary and fiscal impact will depend on the methodology for measuring the cost of production. A cursory study of the current price setting mechanism suggests that most agri-products are already witnessing an MSP of nearly 1.5x of their production cost.
The fear comes true now as imposition of LTCG tax on equities and increased income tax exemption for senior citizens may attract more funds in the fixed income space. However, one also needs to take cognizance of the increased borrowings through public sector enterprises. Further the expected credit recovery can reduce the banks’ appetite for government bonds. Banks’ holding of G-Sec is already well above the SLR level and foreign investor limit on government securities is nearly used up. However, with increased penetration of insurance and pension sector, one needs to keenly watch their demand for bonds. We believe, investor should build exposure gradually as bond yields are entering in an attractive zone.
Now back to the equity market, the budget finally quelled the long-standing market speculation on long term capital gains tax (LTCG). Budget measures leading to higher disposable income along with farm and rural thrust, consumption growth momentum should continue. The continued focus on the infrastructure (9% increases in monetary allocation) is positive for the related sectors.
The revival in earnings is critical for such rich valuations to sustain. Last few years have favored growth over value stocks. However, recently we have seen interest emerging in contrarian themes such as corporate lenders, IT, telecom and construction. After the stellar performance in 2018, particularly in the mid and small caps segment, it is very important to keep an eye on valuations. With little scope of valuation re-rating, bulk of the returns are likely to be guided by earnings growth.
10:01 am :- Finance Minister Arun Jaitley calls on President Kovind at Rashtrapati Bhavan before presenting the Union Budget for the day.. Its Tradition of Indian Budget.
#SE_Live_Budget 8:45 am :- Pre Indian Budget Trend 1st February 2018
Today it's budget day for India, market expected to open on flat note with trend highly volatile during budget speech.
#SouthEastern is keen to analyze budget outcome which will decide our future direction for long term Mutual Fund & Equity Investor.
We have only two big thing to watch out, that will be trend changer;
1 Long term & short term capital gain tax structure, if any change.
2. FISCAL Deficit how Mr. Jaitly will target it, if he expand the govt borrowing or 0.10% of GDP, the amount would cross over $2bn.
Apart from these two top concern;
3. Sector allocation will decide if we can include in MF sector for short term, as we did last year when FM announce over Rs. 3 lac Crore for Infra.
4. How populous this budget will be, Rural & Infra already theme.
5. How well FM can project the budget to make a win for PM Modi in upcoming state & 2019 Election.
There is lot to see today, our budget broadcast will be live on all broadcast ( Tweeter, #SE WebPage, WhatsApp & Privy page with live stock Recommendations)
Have a wonderful Budget day ahead !!
INDIAN BUDGET 1st February 2017
Live Feed Start from 8 AM on wards, Catch us live on Tweeter, Web & Whatsapp
12:54 pm #SE_Live_Budget personal Income Tax 2.5 to 5 Lac @ 5℅
12:48 pm #SE_Live_Budget Maximum cash donation only Rs 2000 for political parties
12:41 pm #SE_Live_Budget No cash transation above Rs 3 lakh will be allowed
12:33 pm #SE_Live_Budget Fiscal Deficit target for 2017-18 is 3.2%; FRBM roadmap to be followed
12:18 pm #SE_Live_Budget Rs 10,000 cr allocated for recalibration of PSU banks
12:13 pm #SE_Live_Budget Govt doubles lending target to Rs 2.44 lakh crore
12:10 pm #SE_Live_Budget Total allocation for infrastructure is Rs. 396135 crore
12:07 pm #SE_Live_Budget Proposals for electronics manufacturing received in last 2 yrs for Rs 1.26 lakh crore
12:02 pm #SE_Live_Budget Service charges for ticket booking on IRCTC withdrawn
11:59 am #SE_Live_Budget Capital Expenditure for Railways Rs 1.31 lakh crore.
11:57 am #SE_Live_Budget Budget Rail safety fund with corpus of Rs 100,000 crore will be created over a period of five years
11:48 am #SE_Live_Budget Allocation under MNREGA increased from Rs 38,500 cr to Rs 48,000 cr
11:44 am #SE_Live_Budget state-run general insurance companies are in for a bumper revenue growth next year as the Fasal Bima Yojna allocation is raised to Rs 13,240 crore next fiscal, from Rs 5,500 crore now.
11:41 am #SE_Live_Budget Dairy processing infrastructure fund to be set up under NABARD, with fund of Rs 8,000 crore.
11:40 am #SE_Live_Budget Agriculture sector expected to grow 4.6%, agriculture expenditure targeted at Rs 10 lacs crores, focus are credit agri disbursements.
11:38 am #SE_Live_Budget bring 1 crore households out of poverty by 2019.
10:40 am #SE_Live_Budget SouthEastern Analyst on wait and watch on Long Term Capital Gain Tax, its currently 1 year, we expect a 2 year window now.. above this it will be negative for market.
09:42 am #SE_Live_Budget Budget copies now in parliament. #SouthEastern has taken a preventive step to Give Intraday Trade Limit only 2 times today as Market will be Volatile due to Budget.
09:27 am #SE_Live_Budget Intraday Trade recommendation Grasim, SBI, Yes Bank, Infosys, VEDL, BOB Trade level on our tweeter side bar .
09:06 am #SE_Live_Budget Finance Minister Arun Jaitley along with officials reaches the north block, will meet the President soon. Budget start @ 11 am.
08:45 am #SE_Live_Wire
Pre Market Commentary 1st February
Today’s market heading for a flat start with the trend sideways positive. Global Setup is on Negative trend this morning, WallStreet shed over 107 point in last night trade, Asian market too trading in red while we writing here. International oil countries OPEC has achieved over 82% of pledged oil output cut in January data, which avail on SouthEasatern dash board. Indian IT firms hitting hard as Trump gets tough on H-1B visas.
Back to home, The first update which is on SouthEastern web is from ICICI Bank Q3 Result, the net profit fall’s to 19%, the NPA (bad loans) rises too in this quarter. SouthEastern putting it for short sale stock till its Q4 results out, trade strategy for Intraday:- when bank nifty break support go short on ICICI, #LongTerm portfolio :- Update the accumulation alert based on SouthEastern Stock Breakout levels. We had shared the IDEA long term trade level based on SE Equity SIP trend, it shows Rs. 70 was the Accumulation in December 2016, the stock now trading around 118.
Indian Budget, Today all eye will be on domestic big event which is Union Budget. The Economy is on bumpy ride after the Demonetisation, However the good news coming from CSO (Central Statistics Office) which said, The Economy grew by 7.9% in 2015-16, the earlier data was 7.6%. SouthEastern will share the detail budget output throughout the trade session today, our budget page is Live at www.SouthEasternpro.com , a Live chat box also avail on our website to send your queries.
SouthEastern Nifty benchmark for the day stand @ 8620, Build buy positions only if it start moving above this mark.
#SE_Live_Wire Jaitley will break away from tradition and after a period of 92 years of separate presentation of Union Budget and Railway budget, both will be presented as a combined document on an advanced date than the commonly followed schedule of end of Feb Wednesday.
Indian Budget @ 29th February 2016 - Live Updates
12:35 PM # says there will be no change in income-tax slabs.
12:15 PM # To introduce 1% infra cess on cars, 2.5% on cars.
11:59 AM # Bankruptcy code to be introduced in Parliament by FY17. Rs 25000 cr allocated for Bank recap. SE- Bank recap allocation very low, dent on bank nifty expect.
11:55 AM # Abolition of Permit-Raj in public transport system. Private players will be allowed to operate fleet services. SE Cheers @ Reforms on its way...
11:50 AM # We Feel that So Far Till 11:50 AM, Budget is balanced and Rural India on Shine.
11:48 AM # To allocate Rs 55,000 cr for highway projects in FY17. Total investment in road projects at Rs 2.18 lk cr in FY17, SE +Infra on Rolling
11:46 AM # All retail shops will be allowed to operate all 7 days of the week. Retail to get boost, SE +
11:42 AM # Govt to provide 8.33% for contribution of new employees. SE Says Cheers on it.
11:32 AM #SE_Live_Budget Electrified 5,542 villages in FY16. To light up entire India by May 1, 2018
11:26 AM # Rs 38,500 cr to be distributed under in FY17.
11:23 AM # To incentivise gas discovery and production, Positive for RIL, ONGC etc.
11:15 AM # Have to provide for recapitalisation of state-run banks. Increasing outlay for social sector programmes.
11:11 AM # Govt's bold measures have helped to stay ahead in challenging times. Growth exceeded 7.6% despite big fall in exports.
11:07 AM #SE_Live_Budget FM Start Speech on loud note, Market reacting positive sharp up.
10:58 AM # Should not mess with the Long Term Capital Gain Tax structure as it would be a big Disappointment, SE Top Concern ...
10:53 AM We are getting info that Large AUTO stock will be under pressure as Excise Duty on Diesel SUV's Expected.
10:45 AM Bank Nifty on Intraday Support @ 13899, We have already initiated Buy on PSU's.
10:43 AM Trade Call Buy SBI @ 162.25 Tgt 165.25 SL 158.30 Buy BOB @ 137.75 Tgt 140.45 SL 133.95
9:24 AM Markets are keenly watching capex and areas of deployment. Measures to solve NPA mess will impact confidence.
9:16 AM Net borrowing in FY17 likely at Rs 4.3-4.5 lk cr. Increased likelihood of 25 bps rate cut.